As we approach the U.S. election, Bitcoin (BTC) has solidified its dominance in the cryptocurrency market, and altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) continue to struggle. Bitcoin's market dominance has reached a 3.5-year high, hitting 60.6%—its strongest level since April 2021. This price action has left smaller altcoins, including Ethereum and Solana, facing significant declines.


With the spotlight on Bitcoin, many crypto enthusiasts are wondering: Is there a potential rally for altcoins after the election? Or will altcoins continue to lag behind Bitcoin in the medium term? Let’s break down the current situation and look ahead to what might happen in the coming months.


Bitcoin's Resilient Rise


Bitcoin's market share has been steadily increasing, and its latest surge is not just about its price but also its market dominance. As altcoins struggle, Bitcoin has absorbed most of the capital flow into crypto assets, pushing its dominance to over 60%. The price of Bitcoin recently peaked near $73,000 before seeing a modest pullback of less than 4%. Meanwhile, large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana dropped nearly 10% from their recent highs, reflecting the broader trend of underperformance in the altcoin market.


In the past, Bitcoin's dominance would ebb and flow depending on market conditions, but right now, there seems to be a lack of major catalysts for altcoins. Altcoins have traditionally benefited from speculative interest, but funding rates on perpetual futures markets have normalized, which means less excitement for the smaller crypto assets.


Regulatory Uncertainty and Altcoins


A key factor that has weighed heavily on altcoins in 2024 is regulatory uncertainty. Altcoins, especially those that are not as widely adopted as Bitcoin, are more vulnerable to shifts in regulation. As the U.S. election draws nearer, the outlook for digital asset regulations will become clearer, and this could have a more significant impact on altcoins than on Bitcoin.


K33 Research analysts point out that Bitcoin's regulatory landscape is more settled, and its broader adoption positions it to weather regulatory storms in the medium term. However, altcoins are more exposed to regulatory risk, meaning their future prospects are more tied to the political outcome of the election. If there is any regulatory clarity or favorable developments for digital assets post-election, it could provide some relief for altcoins, but this is uncertain at best.


What Does the Future Hold for Altcoins?


So, what can we expect for altcoins in the near term? According to analysts at Bitfinex and K33 Research, Bitcoin’s dominance could continue for the next few months. Without a fresh catalyst for altcoins, their price action is expected to remain muted. Speculative interest has dried up, and unless something shifts dramatically, altcoins are likely to continue underperforming relative to Bitcoin.


However, there is some hope on the horizon. Coinbase’s head of research has suggested that the macroeconomic environment could improve into 2025, which would benefit the entire digital asset class, including altcoins. If the regulatory situation stabilizes and the overall market sentiment shifts in favor of digital assets, a rally for altcoins could follow. But for now, Bitcoin remains the clear leader in the market.


Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: The Mid-Term Outlook


Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market could remain strong for the foreseeable future. As altcoins struggle with regulatory uncertainty and a lack of market catalysts, their underperformance relative to Bitcoin seems likely to persist. However, the outcome of the U.S. election and any changes in the regulatory landscape could play a critical role in determining whether altcoins experience a rally post-election.


In the short term, Bitcoin remains the safe bet, with its broader acceptance and stronger regulatory foundation. Altcoins may have a rough ride ahead, but as the macroeconomic and political climate evolves, they could have a chance to catch up—if and when the conditions are right.

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